More of what others have already said...
The popular averages are all trending DOWN, ALL with nice big tops IN PLACE with the exception of the NAS:
decisionpoint.com
Of course who is to say whether these trends are anything more than intermediate in nature and when the BULL might resume but notice how far the NAS could fall just to get to where these guys have lower trend channels.
decisionpoint.com
You all keep talkin about the Fed..There are macro economic forces acting in concert which are NOT good for the US stock market,are probably beyond the power of AG to control, and are certainly outside the boundaries of what the "Houses" are able to manipulate. Are the levels of energy prices, the dollar and interest rates in absolute terms horrible? No of course not. ANd one can easily argue that oil prices cannot continue to rise etc, but at this point the trends are no longer "our friends" and we all kmow how the mkts like to take things to extremes. Stock prices "might" be just plain too high.
Don't let yourselves be confused by the power of your portfolios which I presume have a large helping of the strongest NAS and SP500 stock in it, ie QCOM. The market may or may not get to us before it's over but I too have the feeling that this is not the kind of correction we've gotten accustomed to over the past few years. The mkt has felt tired for quite a while, most traditional signs of tops around for a while too. Maybe there just won't be any climactic selling?
Let's look at some charts, most of which are trending strongly AGAINST the mkt. These charts depict what we already know but IMO they remove any illusions one might have about the direction of things.
As we all know commodity prices are rising but unfortunately I can't seem to find a chart of the CRB to post from the web. Maybe someone can help?
Interest rates:
decisionpoint.com
Money is leaving the US:
decisionpoint.com
Breadth charts which show us what we all already know, that money has been flowing to fewer and fewer stocks for a long time. Of course many of these favored stocks have enormous valuations and require heaps of dough to stay afloat. And these same stocks have been propping up the averages, the mkt, but at this point there just doesn't seem to be enough money to go around and perhaps their overvaluation is in fact weighing down the mkt. Something may have to give:
decisionpoint.com
decisionpoint.com
Maybe we're already in a BEAR mkt?
decisionpoint.com
While it seems true that psychology is "improving" ie bearishness is increasing, and the VIX has risen to levels where a bottom becomes plausible, is there any reason to believe that this bottom will be anything more than a bounce, a temporary thing? decisionpoint.com
decisionpoint.com
CAN the NAS hang on?
Dave @ watch-it .com |
