Post fromYahoo saying it better than I could:
We all are focusing on VISX but all the laser stocks are in steep declines. VISX, being the tallest tree, makes the most spectacular fall. Thinking about this, I did a 30 day chart (yea I still don't know how to link it). Since 9/15 the NASDAQ composite has fallen about -3%, BOL -10%, Beam -17%, NOVA -20%, TLCV -20%, VISX -27%, and LVCI -47% (Ouch!!). I wasn't going to put Kera on the chart because I didn't want to get depressed. I did and guess what? from 9/15 to 10/15 Kera = +1%!! YEA BABY. We're HOT!!
BEAM's chart is uncannily similar to VISX - now ramping down just as fast. I am convinced a vision market dynamism of titanic proportions has started and will continue to unfold.
I've got to admit it. My gut and my brain seem to be agreeing and I'm very excited by this. Maybe I had my head too close to the mower exhaust, but this is my take:
1. The Wall Street laser charm is over: Too many major news stories on laser that have exposed the ugly underbelly of botched procedures. Complication rates and the amount of litigation is apparently large and of unknown impact (Wall Street doesn't like unknowns). P/E's are being pulled back in big time.
2. We're starting to see the word is indeed spreading about the safer method and Kera is acting separate from the laser group.
It's taken a long time for the truth of all the damaged people to hit the main line presses and even if tomorrow's laser is 100% safe, the stigma of an unsafe procedure is out there now.
What is really fascinating to me is the timing of this. Pimp said more than once that Intacs weren't a bad idea, just came along too late. Well now, just as we cross 500 docs (world wide), and the infrastructure is just barely in place for Kera to do it's thing, laser is starting to look very dangerous. Even on that sci.med.vision newsgroup, there are many, many bad experiences from the "my vision is worse and I wish I never did it" to dramatically ruined lives. Looks like Pimp was wrong again. Kera isn't too late. In fact Kera's timing is now looking to be extremely, unbelievably fantastic.
Sorry for the long post.
Good Night
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