Dan, et al,
Surprise, I'm getting the GMI/POG ratio info out on time for a change.
On 10/14, the Barron's GMI was 433.68, up significantly from the previous week's 390.60. With the POG down significantly to 315.75 (10/15), the ratio was 1.37, up significantly from the previous week's 1.21. The ratio one year ago was 1.32.
The ratio continues in the range of values that suggest, based on the data referenced in post 10, a substantially higher GMI within a year. However, it has been in that range for more than a year.
More importantly, the move up in the ratio could mean that the market is beginning to believe that the recent move in the POG will at least hold. I noted last week that the continued low GMI with the POG up substantially during the past two weeks suggested to me that the market doesn't yet believe the new gold market conditions are real. That is, it doesn't believe that the carry trade has been fatally wounded or that it wasn't a significant factor. The move up in the GMI is at least a positive sign that the market may be beginning to believe. However, I notice that the XAU didn't seem to make a similar move this past week. Let's hope that Richard Mazzarella was right when he suggested that the GMI was more representative of the gold stock market. I started posting GMI/POG ratio weekly at the request of Richard Mazzarella.
Last, it may be just a coincidence, but I couldn't find any articles of significance in Barron's this week concerning the precious metals market. For contrarians, this may be a positive indicator.
Cheers,
Larry |
