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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 230.92+3.1%Nov 24 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (32825)10/17/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
Jacob, Still Bearish?

Remember this post from 1998 or have you just hoped others have forgotten it?:

Message 6062908

The end is nigh.

You were as correct in 1998 as you are going to be going forward till the end of the year into the first quarter of next year. All we have here is a correction and nothing more. All we have here is Greenspan taking back the three rate cuts he put in place in 1999. The probability is he will raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the November 1999 meeting. The market can withstand this increase.

The Federal Reserve is fighting an inflation war that can be barely seen. The Fed's goal here is to slow the economy down one way or the other and they will succeed. The risk is that the Fed raises rates higher than they should be and we fall into a recession. I give this scenario a low probability because quarter percent rate increases indicate to me that the Fed is moving in a cautious manner. Further, Greenspan would rather jawbone the markets at this point in time than actually raise rates substantially. Action not words is what you should focus on.

So you think the end is nigh? I hope some panic selling develops so I can pick up more equities at attractive prices.

Jacob, we will see new highs before this market actually tops out. You provide a public service by being a contrary indicator
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