Gary,
there are a number of ways to figure out how a tech company is doing. IMHO, the most important way, is to look at the financial results of the company as well as its research and development spending. The financial results numbers can't lie (unless the company is involved in fraud). These numbers are where both Mehrdad and I are concentrating on, whereas you keep posting market share numbers in various networking products.
I believe that the market share numbers you site are accurate. However, I know that market share numbers are somewhat of a rear-view mirror. They are usually some months old, and may not reflect what will happen in the future. Moreover, there are many channels for selling networking products, and these market share numbers usually reflect only one of these channels. For example, there is considerable direct selling over the Web -- and 3Com says that it is making good progress in Web selling, and has ambitions to become the Dell of networking products, -- there is retail selling, there are OEMs, etc. I am sure that the market share numbers you site do not include many of these channels. Finally, if we used present market share numbers, a number of the hot new networking companies that are valued in the billions should be worth nothing.
One of the key numbers that I look to figure out the future of a company is its research and development budget. For 3Com, this budget has been steadily rising, even though large areas, such as modems and NICs, are being substantially downsized. This tells me that the company's contention that it is rapidly shifting resources into new growing areas is true.
So, you are pointing to past market share numbers. Mehrdad and I are pointing to R&D numbers, clear signs of downsizing in some areas, and considerable anecdotal evidence of robust activity in new growing areas. The R&D activity and anecdotal evidence is enough for Mehrdad and I to conclude that 3Com's networking business is about to turn around. You may want to wait a couple of quarters until the market share numbers start showing this, although it may be too late by then.
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