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To: Rande Is who wrote (13534)	10/17/1999 3:40:00 PM
From: Joe Smith	Read Replies (2) of 57584

Some thoughts on your nice post. 1. Alan has established a new economics. With a little help from Rubin. Economists are a generally a bunch of highly trained PhD's. They also try to be somewhat scientific. This knowledge that he has that has steered the economy so well comes from many thinkers in the field and the repository is much larger than one man. When Einstein left the scene, quantum mechanics continued without him. And Alan is no Einstein. Alan had the courage and power to make the experiment. It seems to have succeeded in the eyes of many, so it won't take much courage to follow him down the same road. He has established his economics so well that he can easily be replaced. This is the mark of any good leader. BTW I am not a huge fan. Things could have been done differently, but he has succeeded by any measure. Same goes true with Clinton/Rubin IMHO. 2. He is slowing growth, steadily. He will slow the economy to a brief halt if he feels it necessary. But, I can't imagine negative growth or long-term flat growth. For those who whine at every tightening, seeing no need for soft landings, imagine how things would be if he hadn't tightened the last two times. We would have been at DOW 14000 and gone to Dow 9500 in a minute.... 3. y2k....So far the actual result of y2k has been a diversion of resources to fix a widespread and potentially damaging bug. The other effect is the media coverage effect. The diversion of resources will continue well into 2000. No bug fix comes without bugs. However, I agree with you about the actual effects. If there were real problems they would have already caused real damage this year as almost any database is dealing with y2k dates already. The worse we hear about from the media right now is the Maine DMV calling Model year 2000 cars "horseless carriages" on the registration. It is off the front page for now. But the media effect is still a wild card. Will the press decide to sell their wares with y2k? My hope is that the change into a new millenium will be compelling enough as a story all by itself to keep the y2k story off the front page. Beyond that we have the anarchists who will inevitably try to exploit the weakened IT structure on January 1. Will they succeed by concentrating their chaotic forces all at the same time? It seems that the IT professionals are also concentrating all of their resources on this date as well, so hopefully they will be ready enough to minimize damage. Few will boot up their computers for the first time in 200 without some form of protection. Hopefully you are right as usual and this period from April 1999 until January 2000 will serve as a nice consolidation for a new breakout in the millenium. I think that is what you are looking for... The biggest problem is the banks and their lame-brained lending protocols...

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