You're right, I don't follow LU very closely. However, when it comes to Wall Street, I look for ostensible reasons for any given stock movement more than those an insider might know to be the real cause. As Keynes once said, if you want to know who's most likely to win a beauty contest, don't look at the contestants, look at what the judges think of the contestants, or something to that effect.
When you look at LU's top, it coincides perfectly with the MCI/WCOM outage becoming known:
MCI's "Mea culpa" hit on July 17:
computerworld.com
And LU's price activity:
clearstation.com
The peak was July 16 when the news was out but no comment from MCI yet made. That came on Saturday, the 17th.
Now, the MCI outage may have had absolutely nothing to do with LU's price decline, but you'll have a hard time convincing anyone with even slightly better than room-temperature IQ. As for the FON acquisition, that didn't hit the street till the first week of October, 2 1/2 months after the decline began.
This is not to say your reasons aren't as valid. I'm sure they are. Just don't discount the network fiasco where ASND's switches were involved.
As for NN's AR and inventories, I don't know any more than you do. However, I'm absolutely convinced this quarter's earning's report is critical. Can the company guide the Street correctly? Are they growing in line with expectations? Are they taking market share? Have they made inroads into the alternate carrier market? Have their newer products --- LMDS and 3dSL --- caught on? Is the gigabit market heating up? How much? What's the addressable market? What's NN's likely share? Who's likely to eat their dust? How about Ameritech? How much new business is the SBC acquisition likely to bring? And what about SBC's alliance with Williams? Any inroads there?
I'm looking at the big picture and everything I see looks pretty darn good.
Yes, I've had to be patient. But I've raised three kids and know you don't throw them out when they hit the terrible twos or even more when they hit puberty.
Now, I'm sorry you're disappointed in my analysis of LU, but, frankly, the disappointment runs both ways.
This is not personal. I think you're fantastic!
Pat
|
