Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Gary Burton who wrote (53124)	10/17/1999 4:35:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Looking at the wave count on the long bond, I think we still have slightly higher yields ahead of us in the next week or so--could top out near 6.45-50 (before heading back to 5.50-75 area)--suggests to me that maybe Tues CPI may also be worse than expected. Also the trade defecit out Wed (?) may be worse than expected, putting added pressure on rates. Something to keep in mind---bottom line EW suggests to me that another blip up in long rates is in the cards soon--as to the why of the situation, I'll leave that to the fundamentalists.....as for the DJ, I am still waiting for the oversold technicals to reach the level they got to at the Sept 1st/98 low--so far, they still have a bit to go (eg %of stocks below their 40dma, %of stocks more than 2 std deviations below their 40 and 200dma's eg). I'm looking to reduce my 84% cash position sometime this week (like a lot of folks), but at the moment I don't know when. Maybe not Monday, especially if we open higher as I would prefer to choose a reversal day (down significantly in am and close near unchanged)

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