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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 168.08+1.8%12:59 PM EST

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To: Jill who wrote (45054)10/17/1999 5:12:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
VIX spike pre-sages a rally in a majority of cases because option players pile on indiscriminantly, willing to pay "any price" for the time premium on S&P index puts

it represents a climax, much like piling on for any individual stock on the way up, thus defining a top

remember the piling on is primarily done by the retail public who are reacting in a very late stage to the news of overall decline and individual decline... they see easy money

the little players historically are wrong with such climax expensive premium purchases about 90% of the time... 6 years ago I was one of them

Voltaire talks about the hierarchies... lowest on the investor hierarchy is the retail investor... when they buy puts in large numbers, THE GAME IS OVER since nobody is left to continue the game

one of the hardest training in my investment life has been to buy when blood is flowing in the streets... sometimes my paper unrealized losses reflect that blood

conversely it is hard to sell when euphoria abounds, like last Monday when I sold a shitload of QCOM calls at 223-1/2

rounded top S&P chart or not, we have reflex rally starting by midweek

Voltaire, somewhere, sometime, I will buy you lunch
/ Jim
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