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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 22.52

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3:59 PM EST

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To: ld5030 who wrote (16210)	10/17/1999 8:49:00 PM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (2) of 29970

What I meant was, do they want more subscribers at the same 1Mbps cap, or do they want to increase the cap to 3Mbps? That is a more complex question. One that no one (even the MSO's or @home) really have an answer to. I'm sure the cable guys planning the networks have some incredibly complex models of expected usage and loading patterns, trying to optimize the profits by building capacity for the future while not overbuilding. The only thing that is certain is that whatever they calculate will be wrong. Thats the nature of predicting the future. So in reality they just take the classic "If you build it- they will come" philosophy. Build it with a reasonable amount of capacity more than you think it needs and then wait till people start screaming for more.... When the screaming starts getting loud enough you add more. All the scientific analysis of load patterns still boil down to that. If people start demanding 3Mb, @home will provide 3Mb. Its that simple. The wire has 100x the capacity they are using now. Maybe someday 1000x. DSL has no hope of accomplishing the same task. The power of the waveguide strikes again. Eric

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