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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.00

+0.2%

Nov 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: dclapp who wrote (30303)	10/17/1999 10:53:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Doug; It's hard to tell when reports are written like that if the writer knows what they are talking about , or if maybe they said it wrong. RE> while put volume handily beat call volume, calls for individual stocks edged out puts in volume. I bet the call OI on individual stocks didn't go up, the heavy volume in calls was people closing out positions. Original writers often buy the ones in the money back to dump the stock. Without looking at the OI change there is no way to say for sure, but I have a feeling a lot of covered calls that had been sold previously got bought back..and the stock dumped. It's not so complacent if you look at the volume as the Nasdaq had over a Billion share day. The banking sector hit the hardest XLF down almost 5% in one day with volume at 158% of normal..somebody ducked but good the VIX went all the way up to 35.48 and settled at 31.48 complacent is about 24 to 25. This don't say that some bullishness doesn't still exist, sure it does, but they are not easy to find. Shorts taking profits may cause a rally at this point, keep in mind that half the volume you see traded is not people buying to go long.. less than a 1/3rd of it is the other 2/3rd is ( shorts covering and taking profits by buying stock from anther person who is selling short ) 2/3rd of the buyers were not taking possession they were just covering short positions for the weekend. Almost every rally we have had since late July except one has been shorts covering..they take profit too. -------------------- Like in up trends you hear CNBC call the dips "profit taking" well in down trends the rallys are "profit taking" We have been in a down trend that started on July 17th.. And that's when I first started playing the short side, I've covered several times since. Message 10539823 Jim Ps I did go long RTN.a on the 13th..and bought XLF and DIA on the close Friday..I'll dump em and go back short Monday if the dollar is down again..Except RTN.a I'm in her for a spell, my cost average is 19-7/8, how did I get it below her low ? When she bounced I sold calls at 30.. Jim

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