Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

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Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Big Bucks who wrote (32847)	10/17/1999 11:16:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) of 70976

BB, Welcome back, Haven't seen you post here in a while. RE Inflation is back: Not really. OPEC members will cheat; they always have; they will again; the only question is when. Gold came down from $800 / ounce. So it popped over $300. The next time a non G-7 central bank says its going to sell a few tons, guess where its price will settle. Chip ASPs have tended to go up more often than down. Cost / transistor continues down, and at an accelerating pace. Haven't done any car shopping, can't comment. Productivity improvements and excess capacity continue to work against inflation becoming a problem any time soon. The markets have topped based on very few participating mega-corporations while the majority of small and mid-sized companies have floundered over the last year or so. Very interesting series of charts in Barron's interview with Tom Galvin this week. He made exactly the same point in Chart #3 which clearly shows that the market is in a significantly oversold state. We can expect a massive reversal during the next 6-9 months. Just another view, Ian.

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