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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2184)	10/18/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) of 3536

It is my belief that the global situation currently is one that if the US gets a cold Asia will get pneumonia. Excellently post. Keep in mind though that Japan and the U.S. have a very low beta. Asia ex-Japan may also only get the sniffles rather than pneumonia, as investors seek out the highest returns. Considering the POV that Asia has seen the bottom, the above case is an unlikely scenario should things unravel further stateside. Have you noticed that all the IBs have been advising their institutional clients to reduce holdings in the U.S. and increase holdings in Europe? This development does not bode well for the dollar. Lastly, we have all been pondering the possibilities of a huge early-January rally here in the U.S. if no Y2K problems emerge. However, it is now my feeling that rallies in emerging markets may heartily trump this contention should no major Y2K problems be reported worldwide.

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