bb:" ok, we're goin' down..."
...no problem; so let's talk extent, bobby.
I got far target = SnP top -25% = SPY 105 area; that would be -15% YTD.
I got worst-case scenario at SPY 90~100 area, say, -35% from SnP top; -25% YTD.
===> what's your best estimate of downside extent ?
now, I've gone out into left-field (mebbe you too, I dunno) and forecast "a real bear market". This doesn't change my estimates, worst-case scenario - of possible downside extent in the SnP. What it means is that I think we're likely to roll around in the dirt for awhile.
Last time ('98) market went to hell in a handbasket, it made a scary, double-plunge... as usual, all our T/A became worthless down there. But it didn't roll around - in fact, the usual suspects (better F/A BigBoyz) moved up smartly.
yeah, ya flip the SPY chart upside-down, it's a big base = apparent distribution. So I think that, if the SnP tanks, when it hits bottom this time it won't just get really, really scary; this time it will get really, really boring !
-Steve |
