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To: Investor2 who wrote (69801)	10/18/1999 10:17:00 PM
From: IceShark	Read Replies (1) of 86076

No you can't say that at all regarding the long bond. First of all it hasn't been around very long - I forget now but it came in somewhere in the late 70's when inflation then went nutz and screwed everything up. There are theoretical reasons the long bond should get a higher rate than you indicate - like inflation expectation and the term component. This usually causes greater than a 1/2 to 1% spread - for example in '85 the spread was well over 3%. There is only one real rate on this planet; it is currently defined as the US 3 mo. T-bill, less CPI. Now that the CPI is getting so cooked by the Feds, I'm not sure how we measure the real rate anymore. -ng-

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