Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (28624)	10/18/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (2) of 42771

Drake, You and I have not agreed on much - maybe because we tend to go head to head on MSFT issues - but I have to agree with you that the NOVL stock is taking a bigger beating than the market conditions and recent NOVL departures would account for. I do think that the Wall Street investor - who does not have a good grasp of NOVL's turn-around - might be over reacting to the arrival of MSFT's Windows2000. The problem with that logic is that the stock should have responded favourably when MSFT announced yet another Win2K delay to Feb/2000. So I don't believe that to be the case. It could be the arrival of the Y2K date, but, that does not explain NOVL's quicker and deeper slide in the stock price over its industry counterparts. In fact, NOVL's products are in very good shape Y2K wise. I personally dont think this is the factor. It could be the investor's extrapolation of NOVL's key senior management leaving the company. Putting the rash of Executive departures in line with the insider trading news that the NOVL Executives had been dumping large volumes of shares in the Q2/1999 period, an institutional investor might be feeling that these are clear signs of up-coming bad news. Maybe a long anticipated bad Quarter of earnings based on some fundamental condition in their marketspace??? Maybe the recent Digital-Me release not meeting up up to all the hype of the product. Unfortunately it was not ready for prime-time (although I am confident that the team will soon clean up the .9 version issues and give the industry an extremely powerful product) and maybe the investors got into a post announcement hangover - i.e. "So whats next from NOVL??" Beyond that, I dont know of any other reason for NOVL's industry leading slide. There could be something afoot, but if so, I dont think we'll know until it shows up. Toy

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