two ideas from the yahoo thread................."Don't Loss Faith in VIXL !!
by: mr_edward_1999
137 of 140
VIXL will zoom up within the next few days due to the following reasons:
1) Its quiet period will end on Oct 26, 1999. VIXL will announce positive news and BancBoston
Robertson Stephens and Bear, Stearns & Co (the lead underwritters) will issue "Strong Buy" ratings;
2) The SAN business is redhot, competitors like BRCD is valued at $6 billion while VIXL is only $600
million;
3) Freefloat is only 5 million shares (including recent over allotment by underwritters). Institutions usually
hold more than 60% freefloat, and since they hold for longer terms, the actual available to market is less,
thus any positive momentum will drive price sharply upward;
4) Further downside risk is limited since most weak holders have sold their shares in recent downward
trends;
5) VIXL is a good company in the right industry. Share trading pattern is similar to VITR. Smart money
try to steal at the cheap.
My Opinion: Trading/ANCR Earnings....
by: fitzpicks
136 of 140
I've probably made $150,000 this year trading IPO's (and gave back $90,000 - can't seem to hang on
to it). I'm beginning to truly master that market and based on my experience here is my opinion. Pretty
simple. In the IPO market the most important thing is UNDERWRITING. The underwriters on this
issue (Robertston, Bear Stearns, Needham) are not as well heeled as Goldman, Morgan, Merrill, etc...
Simply put, we haven't got the best underwriters - not the worst - but definitely not the best. These
underwriters tend to sell heavily right out of the gate. I'm not sure if they are simply completing the IPO
on the open market by holding a bunch of shares for themselves, or if their customers are simply greedy
and grabbing at the first pop in the stock. Regardless, the only way this stock could achieve a
sustainable run the likes of recent issues ATON and FDRY, is if it received the same kind of buying
support. Every time ATON dips to 80, Lehman and Merrill start bidding it back up. Don't believe me -
just get on level II and watch. I bought 200 ATON at 81 this morning on nothing but faith, and sold
minutes later at 85. Anyway, point is, VIXL's underwriters aren't coming in on every dip to support the
price and move it higher. HOWEVER, three major factors are on the immediate horizon: ANCR's
earnings report, upcoming IPO's, and the end of the quiet period later this month. All three should lend
support to VIXL. I took a $7,500 hit on this one (could have sold flat later the same day - oh well) on
the second day of trading. I'm not put off by this. I think VIXL could easily rock, but it won't do so until
the underwriters issues their upgrades later this month and lend their support to the buying - it is quite
likely that they are accumulating at these levels.
So, my advice - hang in there. This one has yet to get it's pop.
good luck. Long VIXL. |
