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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Apollo who wrote (8493)	10/19/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (2) of 54805

OT - a comment on Wall St. analysts and PFE Sometimes a stock price can move based on events that come up unexpectedly, like an earthquake, but other times stock prices can move based on events that everyone should be able to see coming. Everyone is familiar with Viagra. That drug was introduced by PFE in the 2nd quarter of 1998. The news-driven frenzy surrounding that introduction was incredible and sales of the product soared. Wholesalers and retailers had to stock up on the new drug and many customers sought to try it. Obviously the stocking of the channel and the curiousity of many for a novel item impacted sales. It would seem that common sense would tell anyone that a sales comparison between the 2nd quarter of 1998 with the 2nd quarter of 1999 would show a slowdown in growth. Yet when PFE mentioned this obvious fact earlier this year the stock took a big hit as analysts revised opinions and reconsidered PFE's potential. The next chapter is that, of course in the 3rd quarter of 1998 sales of Viagra leveled off. Wholesalers and retailers had plenty of product and demand was leveling off. They were able to reduce inventories to more normal levels as the frenzy over the drug abated. Today PFE announced 3rd Q. 1999 results, and not too surprising, Viagra shows big growth (77%) compared to depressed levels in the 3rd Q. 1998. The stock is up and the Viagra growth is being mentioned in headlines. Can the analyst upgrades be far behind? It would seem that neither the 2nd or 3rd Q. 1999 comparisons should have surprised anyone. Am I off base, or are some of Wall St.'s finest not delving deep enough into the companies they follow? (And doesn't that give us a nice advantage!) StockHawk

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