Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: oilbabe who wrote (53225)	10/19/1999 3:09:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

OilBabe; No dramatic OSX breakout pre - API's... Jim's right on tuesdays ... tuesdays are ususally a soft day; pre-API reporting. That is why Ilike buying right here. Tomorrow if we get a selloff from poor API #'s - if the retrace is enough; I buy on margin - personally to levels where I would be tapping out & triggering a margin call on a break of OSX 58-60ish. I can make the call if I have to... Unless we see Dow 8500 within a 5 day blow off; we "AINT" going sub OSX 60 - period. Risk is 10% downside vs. 35%-50% upside in the nearterm/thru year end imho. Gotta be a player here under those circumstances. Stocks like HAL SII CAM WFT BJS ESV DO RIG PGO can move $3-$5 here in a couple of days. My style is to buy and leverage in waves into bottoms. I can not chase these stocks on the way up; too many headfakes here over the last year - not my style.... I am "NOT" a mo-mo buyer given our trading ranges. The Mo-Mo game becomes a play; post OSX 100 imho. I am screening stocks that are niche leaders, proven companies with strong mgmt; institutuional fav's, with a past history of fast breakouts on sector moves; and who have 50% upside here - just to their prior highs. Have bought during this selloff cycle and am looking to buy the following: SII is #1 holding for me on that screen; I love it here. PGO/VTS - both have 50% moves to recent highs; solid plays. FST - in the $12's has 50% upside to its recent high. MDR - 50%+ to its recent high, $11 share in cash, great niche etc. OII - love the subsea - high tech niche; mo-mo fav & 50% to its recent highs - a STRONG takeout play potentially. NOI - great acquisition; $40 stock last cycle peak & higher EPS capacity here - a must own mid, late cycle stock; I beat the crowd - in here. GLBL - load the boat in avg's in sub $7 - a must own & 50% + upside to recent highs; great - maybe the BEST acquisition. MRL - while not quite 50% to its high; MRL is the "$mart Money" driller here imho. It is "THE" takeout play. Has a great balance sheet; the most leveraged jackup driller on an earnings & cash flow basis to each $1,000 rise in jackup day rates - I own it w/o hesitation for that reason alone. FLC - gotta have "some" here - just gotta; $70 stock if we see a 96-98 type cycle; at the top... two words- Earnings capacity.They've got it like no one else at the top of the cycle. Biggest potential upside on a % basis of any driller - gotta own it here for that reason alone. On the E&P reactions... be patient; load the damn boat & sit tight !!! OXY EOG hammering the numbers here ! $3.00 + Nat GAS - you gotta trust the numbers; the street will allways move up to levels that the numbers warrant - bank on it. Institutions have their hands tied here for a couple of reasons; I wouldn't expect strong buying yet. Have core positions in OEI UPR PXD - now FST; watching NBL & XTO here another $2 down in NBL - another $1 in XTO and in these - as they would have 50% upside to prior highs... great companies with huge cfps upside in 2000. This is THE environment where the individual investor has the advantage over the institutional/fund managers. How many redemptions do you think mutual funds have here going into all this Gloom & Doom market blow off and with Y2K still looming out there ? Lots of selling here by funds just to meet cash withdrawls and to prepare for future "potential" redemptions... Add to that; many of these managers are locking in Market leading YTD numbers for their funds here. The Energy funds led the market - these guys smell & want that bonus money locked in. Lots of "artificial" selling here for those reasons... lots of puts, short sales - hedges etc. Use these periods when the Institutions want to be buying - but can't; as opportunities to smartly accumulate. I am... Another thought; don't chase stocks; average in - in waves. One you establish your position; don't chase a 2-3% moves down. Make it worth your while. Once I am basically in; most stocks must retrace at least 10% from my cost basis to be worthwhile to average down into... let these stocks come to you. I love and am loading up on SII in the high $34 range; it needs to breakdown to $30-31 for it to be worthwhile for me to buy more... I could care less if it goes 10% lower here; it will move up faster & stronger than its going to move down. 10% downside vs. 50% upside over the last couple of mos... risk vs. reward has never been better here imho. Near Nirvanna... actually; watching call option prices; if we see OSX 60-62; it's call option time for me in most cases... I actually hope we see it; don't think we will, but hoping... Be patient here; don't buy everything at once. I waited for FLC & MRL for nearly 4 months to re enter; and I have only partial postions here - sitting for a break sub $10 on FLC if seen & $11 MRL - there I double down; but not before. Buy only the stocks that really blow off here and that fit your screening parameters - buy the best here; no reason to buy problem stocks cheap - when the best of the best are now cheap.... We may not be done retracing here. Average in slowly - there is no absence of buys here... Anyone buying today ? - watch lists...?

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