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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.83+3.9%3:59 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (8135)10/19/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: Jerome  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Gottfried, There are posters far more qualified than myself to interpret the data by Elizabeth Schumann.

There is little chance of there being 4 $2.1 billion months. But even her data can be confusing. While she correctly states that capital investments in North America are 21% lower for the first eight months of this year, this could also be a shift of capacity from North America to S.E. Asia.

I believe that the street more carefully watches the monthly BTB numbers. The fact that last month came in at 1.08, the third monthly decline since the peak of 1.28 in April and May, would lead many investors to erroneously conclude this cycle is in a downturn. But the reports by companies that have thus far reported would indicate just the opposite. So something is missing out of all of these figures. When LRCX reports in a few days we will have a better idea, because it is a larger company.(and hopefully larger orders).

If the BTB turns upward for two consecutive months going from last months 1.08 to 1.11 and then to 1.15 is off to the races for the companies in this group.

We can all say that these numbers aren't that important, but investors (mutual funds, and individuals do watch them) and use them for entry points and exit points for decisions on stocks in this area.

I believe that Ian Stromberg has a better grasp on how to interpret the data from the monthly BTB. Other posters are invited to take a stab at it.

By this time I have totally confused the issue. Good Luck.

Jerome
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