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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications
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To: Jim Parkinson who wrote (6884)10/20/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: Valueman  Read Replies (2) of 10852
 
Orion 1 is pretty well utilized--there is not a lot of excess capacity. It generates the most revenue per transponder of any Loral satellite. The problem is that it generates only half(approximately) of what Schwartz predicted it would generate in revenues. Delays and misfires with the other two sats also affect the ability and timing of debt repayment. They may squeak by, if Apstar IIR fills up quickly and Orion builds quickly on their initial customer(who I think is taking 25-30% of capacity right away). It is a laugh(or a cry?) to read my notes from the original conference call. Orion 1 was supposed to generate $136 million in revenues and $35 million in EBITDA in 98! In 99, we were to see $214 million revenues, $85 million in EBITDA. It was to be a 2 year payback. No wonder Wall Street no longer believes a word that Schwartz says. The stock performance has been a joke, the spin given by management is a joke, and our blind faith in "returns are right around the corner" has been a joke. G* is an unknown for 6-9 months with this "soft as a baby's butt" rollout. Thus, LOR is stagnant, and barring early indications of G* success, it stays that way. My biggest fear is that LOR will have to raise more cash in the interim. I just can't believe that our fearless leader, so well known for creating shareholder value, sits by and lets the stock crumble. All the great deals we thought might happen have never materialized. What are they waiting for? This is a disaster.
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