AntMan,
It is indeed unfortunate that I got into a pissing contest with Def.
That said, I still believe that trading to beat the market is lot less likely than getting whipsawed, especially for retail investors (which, I understand, Def is not); and even investment banks are finding that the risk return rewards for trading are not beneficial (as reported in the Economist article).
Given that, I posit that the mythsters will do well to abstain from derivatives of all kinds, and short term equity trading as well. I really, really mean it. Remember that the other sides of those trades are taken by the pit, and the pit always wins in zero-sum games.
Now, OTOH, I am perfectly willing to debate economic outlooks (but not short term predictions, which is a fool's game IMO).
Finally, I respect healthy skepticism of the academia, but not automatic dismissal with lots of hand waving. Economics is not a hard science as controlled experiments are imposible. That doesn't mean that old wive's tales originating from the pits and/or biases of fringe groups are absolute facts (they may still have merit).
-BGR.
PS: Oh, and I am not going to entertain anyone who wishes me away. :-) |
