Gents;
I am appreciative of the recent kind remarks but I have to point out again that I learn a good deal more here then I can offer and note that Yogi, Marty, and a few others have been pretty quiet of late as well. DD is still mired down in overcapacity in spite of some recent firming in pricing.
I have continued to monitor the posts here, managing to check in twice a week or so. But I have been living out of a bag for the last two months and will continue to do so up until the holidays in December. Here are a few remarks I would pass on FWIW:
On 2.5 inch I agree with Quantum's Brown and see it as an inevitable but only when glass substrates catch up in terms of available supply. While Komag is languishing I note that their Japan partner, AKCL, is doing well with the growth in 2.5 in. / glass demand.
I believe that Komag is mortally wounded and that the ties with WDC have been the final flawed strategy. WDC/Komag are heavily rumored to be in a quagmire of head-disk interface problems which, in turn, are rumored to be a contamination problem. If so I do not think Haggerty is right when he said he expects "normal" levels of production in November. The comment, in itself, is the sort of "deniable plausibility" statement Watergate made famous. It is just more nebulous nonsense and, IMO, WDC and Komag will die together. There are no white knights for WDC who really has no technology or any "hooks" to provide a strategic path out of the woods they are in.
Yamaha is reportedly ramping up production of GMR heads while rumors abound that Sony is looking to venture into production. SAE is still king of the independent suppliers in my opinion and Read-Rite still struggles. However, RDRT has technology and their August re-entry to Quantum bodes well. They will continue to have stiff competition but may be the long shot turn-around.
Less of a long shot, IMO, is HMT. I think HMT is in an attractive position technically and from a merchant stand point. They have managed technology especially well and have endeared themselves at Maxtor. When WDC goes they will , no doubt, miss them, but HMT may be in a good position to supply Seagate on several new programs and are worth watching.
IBM, which has always had technology, seems mired in a logistics and political miasma. The recent move of the DD locus to Japan has created several problems internally as well as with customers. There is a long history of enmity between San Jose and Fujisawa that I am sure Gottfried could comment on in historical terms, but the point is that it continues. Goerstner's overall strategy, implemented by Vanderslice, still bears watching. Interesting announcements from them recently, especially in light of Microsoft's bullish statements. I still question whether Y2K is a major influence on PC buying.
HTCH still seems to have a commanding lead in suspension technology but don't count out KRP in Thailand whose recent financial re-org has put them back into the playing field. I am sure i will hear from Z on this one but there are constraints on what I can comment on. I just do not think it is a HTCH slam dunk. I do not think that SEG will be implementing TSA in big volumes any time soon. Innovex's FOS is now a FSA (for Flex Suspension Assy I assume) which is basically a flex circuit bonded to the suspension. I do not know the details of the termination but look for it to be the mainstay for the long awaited U-8 from Seagate.
In sum we are still in the mode of waiting for overcapacity to be relieved by attrition and the advent of new apps and new bandwidth.
Sorry for the irregular comments of late but suspect this will be the mode I'll be in for the next few months for a variety of reasons and thanks for the continued commentary from all of you stalwarts.
Best,
Stitch
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