<<I didn't say anything about takeover possibilities.>>
No! I did introduce this idea... and I am not inventive here. It is a fact.
<< It sounds as though you have a lot riding on this company. Probably too much. I don't mean financially, but I do mean in the avocation sense. You sell information on PMs and so advertising is important.>>
Of course. It is true. I put my money where my mouth says. And it is normal that if I know of a stock with above average potential in the sector I cover, I want the word to be out so I can gain more exposure. But I don't think I am avocating too much nor am I too much in this play ... even if BAY deserves a lot more.
<<I never stated any negatives toward BAY. I have stated repeatedly that BAY or any silver play is hostage to the POS.>>
Well if you say that BAY cannot move higher if POS stay put, that is very much negative when someone says it is a strong buy at current level and will double or triple even with no move in silver. Either you are saying that the salesman is stupid to suggest such an idea or you really don't understand the play. I don't know which one is the truth and I don't care, but I think I am right to take the opportunity to defend my case and try to convince you with facts rather than rhetorics.
<<I won't get many no matter how good I am. You have to go where the rising tide raises all boats, not where you carry water so a certain ship will sail. >>
I am a fly fisherman and one of my most favorite game is to access a small pond down deep the woods, where I know very few go because the roadmap is not clear. I know that in that small pond I wont catch up my limit of speckled trout, but I will catch the big one that make my dreams. And honestly, it happens more often then one would think.
<<BAY may be an exceptional play as I have stated previously, but over the decades bull or bear it is in other stocks where just about everyone including me has made the dough.>>
I agree with you if what you are talking is again the growth stocks vs the cyclicals. What can I say I love these hard assets play.
<< To make the amateurish assertion that a roaring bear market hurts the best tech stocks such that being invested in tech is a bad idea, simply flies in the face of 200 years of stock market history.>>
I am sure you know what a bear market is. Remember the IBM case in the 80's early 90's... for years it was not that great of an investment. What about the DOW at 1000 in 1965... how long before those stocks went above that level again.
I think that before buying the growth stock in a through bear market period, one need to learn fly fishing and map reading.
<<You can always and somewhat easily find great tech winners in
the worst bear markets, but you can't do that in PM bears.>>
But that is not true at all. Look at the performance of Barrick, Franco-Nevada in the past 15 years. Barrick went up 60X following some great discoveries. If we extend the mining sector to include base metals and diamonds there are more winners.
I wonder how many of the current high flyers teck stocks (or banks or whatever) will make new highs in the next 10 years. Many high quality companies have probably made (or are about to make) their cycle highs like it happened in 1965.
<<I played the metals in the '70s, but made far more shorting them at the beginning of the '80s. Now that's how you make money in PMs.>>
Well the group is very volatile and cyclical. And this statement make sense. Still, there is nothing that beats the performance of gold stocks at the beginning of a bull market or at the early stage of important discovery... except maybe for this crazy Internet bubble and IPO game. We have yet to see the damages that this will cause on the way down. It may well exceed the worst of the PM's bears.
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