The way I see it
1 - Rambus technology works. It works in game products. It works in PC's. There are many PC's, at Intel and some PC makers, currently running well with RDRAM's with the 840 and, mind you, with the 820 as well.
2 - The delay in introducing the 820 is due to a problem with some motherboards. Intel said the fix does not require new silicon. Fixing a problem with motherboards takes less time than fixing silicon. However, I would not rule out that the redesign of either or both of the 820 or the RDRAM chips could make the system more tolerant of motherboard imperfections.
3 - When the 840 is introduced (hopefully on Monday -:)) it will at least silence the claim that Rambus technology does not work. It, by itself, will not make a lot of money for Rambus, however.
4 - Intel said that the 820 will ship this quarter. That is when the money starts flowing in.
5 - The DRAM market is projected to reach about $50 B by 2003 (may be even 2002, I am not certain). By 2003 RDRAM's will have captured well over 50% market share and growing. According to somebody on this board or on yahoo, RMBS gets some 1.5%. (Somebody else suggested 3%). At $50 B, 50%, and 1.5%, RMBS would have revenue from PC's only of $15 per share growing at over 30% a year. Other revenue from games and comm products may (should?) suffice to cover their other expenses. There bottom line would be about $15/share. If they command a PE ratio of 40, RMBS would be $600.
5 - I do not know, at this time, of a better long term investment.
6 - It will be rocky, no doubt about it. The doubters, the shorters, and the manipulators may take it down further from here. It may drop someday from $300 to $200. But it will eventually get there.
Good luck investing -:)
Mohamed |
