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Technology Stocks : Vignette Corporation (VIGN)
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To: George Gotch who wrote (117)10/21/1999 2:15:00 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (2) of 628
 
My comment about not losing money is on a very select list held over a period of time. If you are on margin and screw up your trading, your account could sink toward zero rather quickly. I think that a lot of these stocks will go to $4 and sit there until they are delisted for inactivity. But not Vignette.

Your argument is just more of the same old risk-averse, business-as-usual, everybody is crazy attitude that I come across daily.

You are a conscious human being so you get an opinion just like everyone else. However, let's look at what is objective: the numbers.

Since when has a company selling software to corporations grown 74% sequentially off a $20mm base like VIGN just did. This just hasn't ever happened. Its extremely conservative accounting so the 74% is just totally beyond belief as there are revenues not even counted in deferred revenues. (I adjust VIGN's numbers for there different accounting policies to make it comparable to others - hence the 74%, not the reported 63%).

You have to investigate why a company like VIGN is able to do this?

Then look at Amazon.com's revenue growth. Its absolutely staggering. Amazon.com could do $600-$700mm in revenues in Q4 - the company's first revenues were what, 3-4 years ago.

You can dismiss this as hype if you want to but I just don't understand why you would do this. We live in a world of capitalism where if you innovate, you get tremendously wealthy. Its not a new concept.

If you are even still listening, I would love to discuss the concept of compounding versus the concept of the maximum loss is 1x your original investment.

Some are bitter at the entreprenuer next door that started XYZ.com and sold the company to Yahoo for $30mm or the VC firm which invests $20mm in July and that investment is then worth $1b the following January. I think that bitterness is just human emotion clouding one's thinking.

Is there too much hype regarding the internet? Don't know but my personal opinion is that something as revolutionary as the internet cannot be hyped enough. The internet is not being driven by just day-traders and internet VC's - Corporate America is fully embracing the internet. >80% of corporate software applications will be web-based in a few years. >70% of all B2B commerce will be on the internet in a few years. >90% of incremental national GDP could be ecommerce related in a few years. These are projections (not made by me) but I see no reason to fundamentally doubt the trend. Innovation breeds upside suprises. I am optimisic, you cry bullshit. So be it.

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