Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders

LRCX 158.18

+2.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Duker who wrote (3490)	10/21/1999 4:11:00 PM
From: Thomas J Pittman	Read Replies (2) of 5867

Briefing's comment on Lam: Lam Research (LRCX) 77 1/4 +3 1/16: Stock up in anticipation of a strong earnings number due out after today's close... Street looking for gain of $0.49 v. year-ago loss of $0.70... For the year, market expects LRCX to earn $2.57... In other words, at current price LRCX trades at 30x estimated FY00 earnings... Given company's spotty earnings history, the cyclical nature of the chip equipment business and the unfriendly interest rate environment, Briefing.com contends that this is a hefty price to pay... Basically, stock priced for perfection... Any disappointment and the bottom could drop out... We're not saying that they will disappoint, just that the risk/reward ratio no longer favors the upside... Technicals also overextended, as the gap between LRCX's stock price and its long-term moving average is unsustainably wide... Historically, such divergences precede a corrective period... In sum, LRCX looks to be a classic candidate for a sell-the-news earnings response... LRCX is up 25% in the month leading up to today's report and an eye-opening 334% year-to-date. -- RW

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