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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (29427)10/21/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Yours was actually a better question. With cycles stuff when I looked back to long sustained slow grind drops, the cycles have lower tops and extended bottoms instead of the normal sharp bottoms until the tops are so low they can barely move. They then get a diverging sharp run up in the indicator but minimal movement in price and the declining top cycle repeats.

The problem is a cycle is a cycle so this is possible in stochastics, MACD, Chandes etc but Bullish percentage percentages are based on actual price movement. It would take broad based rallies to probably get the indicator to move up significantly and if sector rotation continues as less money chases fewer stocks, that will be hard to do. I am curious if it will just eventually go dead.

As I said on teh "other" thread, I learned in 97 and 98 to wait until the NYSEBP gives two buys in a short period of time. Note we had a fake one a few weeks ago but they didn't fool me this time <g>

I am getting ready to download my data soon so I will know more after I get a chance to see what my stuff says. I could argue it either way right now. Bullish, good strength despite a negative TICK and TRIN over 1 shows the market wants to go up, the bearish argument, the smart money was propping it up as the TRIN and TICK showed they were sneaking out the back door. I still like my idea last weekend that we head up a bit to around the inverted H&S target of 10600 then drop just as everyone thinks it is safe to get back in.

Good Luck,

Lee
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