Wow Paul, sounds like one of those $10,000 reports once you are finished. I can't really say that I understand the market. I'm here in Aus and clearly, it wouldn't seem to be a winner. We do have the advantage that TV is free and therefore a device like TiVo would only cost for hardware. The channels are only 5, so one could practically do the recording without a service, but then it would be back to programming the clock in the VCR and we all know we can't do that!
Still, having a lesser amount of channels really makes the TiVo product valuable.
As far as deciding how much money people can pay for entertainment, it's tricky. They seem to put a premium on this service. For many it's their only off work reward, sad as that may seem.
Still, I guess you are right that the ultimate market for all these gadgets will be limited to disposable income. Most people won't have the money.
I do believe the broadband connections will come fairly cheaply once they do come. There seems to be a great deal of competition and they are aware they can quickly price themselves out of existence before they even start. I think it will be the bundling of services that makes these offerings work.
AT&T would seem to have no concern whether you watch commercials or not. They could probably do very well letting their customers time shift everything. What they do want is to get you hooked enough to buy their phone service, then their TV download, then their services such as special @Home things, maybe some gaming if they can claim a piece, and finally some income from distribution based on their soft handed control of what the viewer sees.
Why shouldn't they enter the Radio game, or music downloads? And why shouldn't they set up a portal connection that makes it all so easy to do PIM (Personal Information Management)? They will probably give away heaps of free sticky services to lay claim on your soul. Excite has many very good services like this now.
Naturally, it wills all blend in with wireless services that allow you to stay connected and want a T mobile phone. The wireless connection will round out the package letting you check security at home, ask the fridge if you need milk while shopping and never miss a call.
The bundling of services will make the questions of which item can I afford more like do I choose package A, B, or C. Once you've got that a few packages will have extra charges for use probably not unlike mobile phone contracts.
Question is will cable or DSL have any difference? On the surface, it looks like DSL is less capable, but I'm no expert. It all comes together with high-speed access. There could be some fixed wireless offerings, but they seem to be more geared toward businesses and building based distribution. The single family home might not see the service at first.
I suppose being in Florida, you must be in the thick of it. I'll be interested to see what you learn.
Regards,
Mark
PS I sold my Tivo stock. I decided the story was too early and they didn't have enough basis in new contract like PR to hype the market on a daily basis. I sold at 43 and made 10 points. I still think the prospects are interesting, but one will have to see how Christmas goes. All the reports so far seem to say the product is really good. |
