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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 233.22

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Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Libbyt who wrote (81547)	10/21/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (1) of 164684

Hi The DSL equipment world has 3 components. At one end you have the DSL modems. This is how subscribers dial out to their central office. There are lots of modem suppliers like Alcatel, 3 COM, Cisco etc. Chipsets for this modems are provided by Aware, Globespan , Alcatel etc. In the end I believe the modem business is going to be a commodity business just like the 56 K modem. Maybe one supplier can benefit if they become the monopoly like US Robotics did. At the central office you have these boxes which aggregate these modems. These aggregators are called DSLAMS. Suppliers here include CMTN, CSCO, ALcatel , probably Nortel and Lucent. These aggregators terminate a bunch of modems. Not clear who the winner in this space. As the aggregators do not have much value added software on top there is not much differentiating the aggregators. These aggregators usually take all these modem calls and put it on a broadband backbone like (ATM ) where they are terminated by the end equipment. This end equipment takes all these ATM circuits and shoves it on to the IP backbone which we all know and love. The end equipment has all the value added software by which ISPs can provide enhamnced broadband services beyond basic connectivity. I think the fattest margins are in this end equipment. Leading vendors are RBAK, CSCO and Nortel through their aquisition of Shasta networks. Lucent has some products via Ascend but I think the perception is that they may be behind. If I had to chose a DSL equipment vendor other than CSCO (I am naturally biased here :-) I would go with RBAK and maybe AWRE after their deal with INTC. RBAK has a huge valuation but I believe this market is going to grow exponentially for the next few years. Anindo

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