Essay d'Argent
With a couple years of cash and the weight of the genomics center lifted, whatta we gotta? A leaking toxic, soon to go bye-bye. Den whatta we gotta? Extremely interesting technology for free. But it's no Nettie, so it sells for say, one-hundredth the price of Nettie and her friends. 1/100th! Exqueeze me world, the virtual seems cool, but y'all still have bodies that get messed-up. And compared to Amazon, we're closer to 1/1000th. That line gets stuck between my bad molar and the worse one next to it. I gotta floss.
Speculation:
Berger knows he's got hot-fig technology. Knows it too well. Too proud perhaps. But to the outside world (read: pharma) it's just another pipeline dream. So potential deal after deal has fallen through due to a mismatch of evaluations. Bergie's and Pharmie's. And Berger hurled with the signing of the death spiral a year ago...
But now we have a new situation. As has been pointed out, a much better cash position obviously affords bargaining power. And I'm gonna go out on a big oak branch: Berger will partner some small bit of ARGENT, etc. That will improve his position vis-a-vis the Potentata, and he can go for plus d'argent on successive deals. As bottom-line health improves, and clinicals progress, partnerships will reflect more generous risk-reward assesments.
'Course, Bergie may continue to ask too much for Ariad's technologies. That wouldn't be pretty for us. So how do we value ARIA? How about like a race horse. What are the odds of success in Argent or the related diabetes work? One in a hundred? That's what the market believes, apparently.
Is it absurd speculation to place odds? No. I think it's appropriate speculation. What are the odds, guys? How long will it take to get to a billion dollars in revs, if we look at a success-scenario? A couple other factors in hand, and we dang got ourselves a consensus opinion.
I wanna see odds. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen...
Hillary
I need a new brain. |
