Bill,
Ask and you shall receive...
Ian.
++++++++++++++++++
October 22, 1999
--SUMMARY:----Semiconductor Equipment
Sep. total equip. book-to-bill was 1.08, down from Aug.'s 1.09 and
July's 1.11. Sequentially total bookings down 4% with shipments down 3%.
Front-end b-to-b 1.07 from 1.05 (Aug.). Orders down 4%, shipments down 6%.
Back-end b-to-b 1.11 from 1.22 (Aug.). Orders down 3%, shipments up 6%.
August data was revised significantly upwards by 5%-7%.
Given the gigantic revisions, which happen for several months after the
data is reported, how does one draw microscopic conclusions ??
Instead, please refer to our Lam note for industry commentary.
--OPINION:------------------------------------------------------------------
September's Book-To-Bill Declines From 1.09 To 1.08
September's total book-to-bill was 1.08, down from August's 1.09 and
July's 1.11. September's total bookings were down 4% sequentially to
$1,483 million, vs. $1,542 million in August after a 1% sequential
increase from July to August. Shipments dropped 3% to $1,371 million
from 1,412 million in August. This decline in shipments comes after a 3%
sequential increase in August.
Front-End Book To Bill Improves From 1.05 To 1.07
The front-end book-to-bill was 1.07, up sequentially from 1.05 in August
and 1.06 in July. Front-end equipment orders dropped 4% in September to
$1,049 million, compared to flat sequential bookings in August. The
increase in the book-to-bill, therefore, was due to front-end shipments
declining more than its bookings. Front-end equipment shipments declined
6% in September to $982 million from $1,045 million in August. From July
to August, front-end shipments increased 1%.
Back-End Book-to-Bill Drops From 1.22 To 1.11
Back-end bookings declined sequentially while shipments continued to be
strong, although the magnitude of the increase is tapering off. The
September back-end book-to-bill was 1.11, down from 1.22 in August and
1.28 in July. September orders of $434 million were a 3% sequential
decrease from $448 million last month, vs. a 3% gain from July to
August. Back-end shipments continued to improve, rising 6% to $389
million vs. $367 million in August. From July to August, back-end
shipments increased 7%.
Continued Strength In Bookings Vs. The Previous Year
The September results continue to show positive year-over-year
comparisons in bookings and shipments, topping all previous
year-over-year comparisons across the board. Total September orders were
208% above last year's orders of $481 million, vs. August's 172%
year-over-year improvement. Front-end bookings were up 216% from the
previous year, compared to a 165% year-over-year increase in August. The
back-end continues to show strong improvements in bookings; this month's
191% year-over-year increase is comparable with August's 190% increase.
Year-Over-Year Shipment Trends Gaining Momentum
September's shipments continued to show strength in year-over-year
comparisons. Total September shipments were 62% above last year's
shipments of $846 million, vs. August's 42% year-over-year increase.
Front-end shipments were up 64% from the previous year, compared to a 49%
year-over-year increase in August. Back-end shipments were up 57% from
the previous year, compared to a 26% year-over-year increase in August.
Year-To-Date Bookings Continue To Improve
An year-to-date analysis shows similar results in bookings, with bookings
up from the previous year's levels while shipments are still down.
Year-to-date, 1999 bookings are at $12,318 million, which is 43% above
last year's $8,629 million level. August's year-to-date bookings of
$10,835 million were 33% above the previous year's level. September's
year-to-date front-end bookings were 44% above the previous year's
numbers, vs. a 34% increase in August. Back-end orders were 40% higher
this year, vs. a 30% increase in August's year-to-date comparison.
Year-To-Date Shipments Trends Improving But Still Down From 1998
Year-to-date shipments are starting to see improvement but are still down
from the 1998 levels. Year-to-date, 1999 shipments are at $10,441
million, which is 7% below last year's $11,190 million level. August's
year-to-date shipments of $9,069 million were 13% below the previous
year's level. September's year-to-date front-end shipments were 3% below
1998's level of $8,130 million, vs. a 9% decrease in August. Back-end
shipments were 16% lower this year, vs. a 22% decrease in August's
year-to-date comparison.
Orders Still Off The Cycle Peak
With bookings declining in September we continue to be off the 1997 cycle
peak levels. Total bookings of $1,483 million in September are 9% below
the November 1997 peak of $1,633 million, front-end bookings of $1,049
million are 10% below $1,170 million, and back-end bookings of $434
million are 6% below the peak of $463 million.
Shipments are even more distant from the peak levels of 1997,
illustrating the industry's continuing urge to build backlog. Total
shipments of $1,371 million are 16% below the November 1997 peak of
$1,634 million, front-end shipments of $982 million are 21% below the
November 1997 peak of $1,240 million, and test/assembly shipments of $389
million are 3% below December 1997 peak of $401 million.
Major Revisions In Front-End And Back-End Data
Both the front-end and back-end underwent major revisions for the month
of August, with upward revisions in both the front-end and back-end.
Front-end bookings were revised up by 7%, while back-end and total
bookings were revised up by 6%. With shipments, front-end was revised up
by 6% while back-end and total were revised up by 5%. Without these
revisions, sequentially, total bookings would have increased 2% (vs. the
actual 4% decrease) and total shipments would have also increased 2% (vs.
the actual 3% decrease). July's data was also revised, as both front-end
shipments and bookings were revised upward by 3%, causing the total
shipments and bookings to go up by 2%. |
