Jerry,
>>>> whats the game plan...i was watching the VIX too..i'm thinking we only have one more selloff here to test, not the lows, but maybe a higher low??? <<<<
I have firm CLASS 1 SELL signals supported by sell signals in the VIX and the TRIN, so Im looking at MONDAY's highs, although it could be TUE.
As to the size of the pullback, there are some signs which are a bit positive hinting that the next pullback may not be that strong. Such as the BKX setting a higher high, and the NEW HIGHs/LOWs have improved to some degree.
We also have the end of month rally which statistically starts during the last 2 days of the month which would be next THUR,(EDIT) so there may not be alot of time for a strong selloff to develop.
Also notice that there is some sector rotation into the BANKs/DRGs/OILs/OIL DRILLERs, but the DOT seems to be starting to lag a little, although it is still up. The DOT
appears to heading for a possible DOUBLE TOP.
If we do set a HIGHer LOW on the forthcoming pullback, I would still say that it is too early for new highs across the board, but more inclined of a continuing trading range. We still have the FOMC meeting on NOV 16, and the number of those feeling that the FOMC wont raise rates in light of the Y2K fears is growing rapidly. If we rally strongly into the FOMC meeting, I would not be surprised if the FEDs raise rates.
Im more inclined that if the market does rally strong it has a better chance of such after the NOV FOMC meeting which would also line it up with the XMAS rally on a statistical basis. Statistically, XMAS rallys start from a bottom formed in NOV or DEC.
seeya |
