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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.94

+1.1%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: The Phoenix who wrote (28798)	10/22/1999 5:31:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (2) of 77400

I would be shocked if Cisco warns, given the bulge of business carried over into this quarter from the last. Also, few companies are as good as Cisco in maintaining secrecy, so I question the likelihood of an insider leak. However, quiet period is exactly when a company pre-announces. Cisco can warn at anytime prior to its official earnings announcement, although they are supposed to do it as soon as the company is aware that it will fail to meet expectations by a material amount. I think the only real risk is that management will warn about the January quarter - even here I think the likelihood is slight. There are real concerns - Y2K spending slowdown, Higher chip prices affecting margins, Cerent dilution. However, I believe Cisco has deferred enough business to make through against modest consensus expectations. I do expect DSOs to rise from the artificially low 32 days back to the high 40s as linearity returns to a more natural pattern. If it gets too squishy on Monday, I might have to take some off the table, but I think this may blow over.

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