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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.00+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (31090)10/22/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Matt, you are quite right that there are more verbal than real bears out there...the fully invested bears as they are known. but you are wrong to think that the MDA thread is home to many perma bears...it isn't. some play the ripples, some take a longer term view, and by and large the thread is quite good at spotting the trends of all time frames. the reason why the thread sometimes sounds more bearish than bullish overall is that we all realize that the market has reached nosebleed valuations while the very factors supporting such valuations continue to crumble (market internals, interest rates).
the fact that bearishness in general is more a matter of word than deed is however NOT a good sign...it means that what is supposed to be a contrary sentiment gauge has in fact less validity since the positioning is in fact different than the sentiments expressed in the polls. in fact most people continue to extrapolate the gains of the last few years indefinitely into the future, and that is a folly imo.
what makes you think that the bear market as evidenced by the a/d line is going to end "any day now" as you put it? what exactly will end it? the a/d line looks oversold, but it looked oversold last week, last month and three months ago. the most disturbing facet of the a/d divergence remains the fact that no true washout in the leading large cap stocks has occurred as of yet to make the indices catch up with it and create a truly credible bottom. as long as that has not happened, calls for a bottom will probably remain premature.

regards,

hb
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