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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (71320)10/22/1999 7:08:00 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
the naz will no doubt revisit its 1998 lows and then some, that's a 50 to 60% decline. there's so much tech in the SPX and OEX that they will be smashed for about the same as most of the nontech co's in those indexes are already sitting around our targeted 1996 levels. In the DOW fror instance we have MO back where it was in 1994 and DIS at 1996 and yet IBM and HWP have carried that POS this yr, and yet everyone blaims thurs selloff on IBM... how about the whole meltup from 1998 being alot cause of the beamer??? of course, you've also got GE and WMT in the DOW which are the other teeter totters. GE is likely to have probs in its capital division that will waste it. Not to mention the fact that int rates are headed back to 7 to 8% back where they were in 1995-1996,a nd there has been very little earnings growth since 1996.. just multiple expansion and what growth there was will be wiped out by financial assests crashing and the dollar imploding thus giving us higher commodity prices and higher int rates. exporters lke KO should actually fair well form a business standpoint ( their multiples still need to fall to reflect higher int rates) assuming protectionism and/or anarchy don't break out in some countries.

so basically, i think you'll see july 1996 lows on DOW and SPX.

besides.. measure from the neckline of the 3 yr broadening patter we're in to the recent July top.... by no coincidence.. it points to the same place. neat, eh? -g-

see, i can be a chartist geek too (BG)
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