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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (53438)10/23/1999 1:18:00 AM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Papaya--Again, the market already knows all about the good cash flow backdrop. No surprises, so no edge. In contrast, at the margin, most investors don't expect sub 20 oil--so at the margin if it comes to pass--THEN will be the time to buy back in since THAT will be a firmer bottom with everyone discouraged....Again, I will agree that I am wrong if nymex takes out the recent 25ish high on this move. From a risk/reward standpoint, I'm sticking to the sub 20 "C wave" scenario. Bottoms are usually not made on one legged stools on one quick spike down. They need a second leg at least, and preferably one that shakes all the weak hands out once it breaks 20 and 'shocks; everyone....My 2c --geez this is fun--I might have to eat my words as early as mid next week the way Friday's prices behaved.
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