The End of an Era And the Start of...on ATON< EXTR<FDRY<CSCO etc
datacomm.com
Oct. 22, 1999 (DAC - CMP via COMTEX) -- It's ironic, isn't it? The
vendors that Data Communications probed and pushed into the spotlight
are making a huge splash with their huge IPOs, just as the magazine is
going dark. Meanwhile, the rest of the media has discovered what Data
Comm understood first, and at least to my thinking, better than anyone
else. Today, for example, I read an article in the Wall Street Journal
about Alteon Websystems Inc. (San Jose, Calif.), Cisco Systems Inc.
(San Jose, Calif.), Extreme Networks Inc. (Santa Clara, Calif.),
Foundry Networks Inc. (Sunnyvale, Calif.), Nortel Networks Corp.
(Brampton, Ontario), and 3Com Corp. (Santa Clara, Calif.).
Sounds promising. But there were a few problems. The author compared
these vendors on Layer 2 switch sales, while the real market is for
Layer 3. Cisco was on top for market share, which is technically
correct. But Alteon, Extreme, and Foundry get the bulk of their revenue
from Layer 3-and now Layer 4-sales. Apply the Layer 3 lens, and Extreme
has the biggest piece of the market, followed by Cabletron Systems Inc.
(Rochester, N.H.) and Nortel. Clearly, the author didn't understand
that these are different markets. And this isn't the first and won't be
the last time that the business press just didn't get it about our
industry.
Maybe it's just a matter of time. The industry has changed enormously
in the eight years that I've been a Data Comm columnist. And all along
the way we needed deep explanations of the technology, with relevant
assessments of pros and cons to help these markets grow.
Networking has always been a big business that kept on getting bigger
and bigger. And as the industry grew, it cycled between LANs and WANs.
My first columns were on frame relay, SMDS, T3, and fractional T1-all
wide-area services used to build routed enterprise backbones. About the
only interesting thing on the local front was the token ring vs.
Ethernet wars. Oh yeah, Novell Inc. (Orem, Utah) was peddling that
Netware stuff.
Watching WANs
Then fast Ethernet bubbled up from the IEEE, along with Ethernet
switching, and suddenly LANs came to life again. Next up was Mosaic,
the original moniker for Netscape-I mean America Online (Vienna, Va.).
The rise of the Internet pushed our attention back to the WAN. Today,
most network designs embrace next-genera-tion Internet technologies
like VPNs (virtual private networks) and VOIP (voice over IP). We've
standardized on 10, 100, and 1,000-Mbit/s, with 10,000 Mbit/s just over
the event horizon. But even with gig Ethernet and enterprise VOIP
starting early next year, Internet-based WAN technologies will dominate
planning, because that's where the money is.
LANs have always been relatively low-priced items when compared with
the facilities, operational, and equipment costs of WANs. Consider the
1,000 or so CLECs (competitive local exchange carriers) competing for
your VPN business, and you'll see why I say the days of private
networking are quickly coming to an end. And just as many mainframe
operations were outsourced, so too will networks and network managers.
Sisyphean Tasks?
That may not be such a bad thing. In my experience, many IT positions
are thankless jobs. When everything is going fine, you're a hero. But
the minute the net is down, all hell breaks loose. That explains why so
many corporate networkers have found greener pastures at ISPs (Internet
service providers) and other 'Net companies, where they can contribute
to profit drivers and enjoy a stake in the company. Take into account
stock options, better base pay, the genuine appreciation for a job well
done, and plenty of peer support, and it will likely become very
difficult for many companies to hold onto network architects.
Surf's Up for VPNs
Ironically (that word again), Data Comm's demise could be a signal of
things to come. The next wave of public networking is coming, and when
it hits it will transform how neworks are designed, built, managed, and
financed. And riding the crest of this monster will be VPN providers
and application outsourcers.
That wave is going to wash right over most network architects as
well, which means it's time to sink or swim. Here's my lifeline
strategy: If you're not working for an Internet outfit, it's time to
rethink your opportunities.
Here's my advice, for what it's worth: If you're spending more than
50 percent of your time on an internal administrative network, you need
to find a way to cut that back to 10 percent. The other 90 percent of
your time should be dedicated to e-commerce activities . And be sure to
get ready for the fasternet I described in my previous column (see
"Focus on Fasternets: Speed Zone Ahead," October 1999).
And what if you decide to take the career plunge? A good place to
begin your search is with the CLECs, equipment suppliers, and
application service providers (ASPs). Remember: Think Internet.
As you all know, this is the last time we'll be talking together-at
least in this particular venue. Before we say goodbye, I have to tell
you what a pleasure it's been sharing my thoughts with you in these
pages and meeting many of you at conferences, trade shows, seminars,
and on e-mail. It's been a great run, with so many more rewards than I
could have ever imagined when I first started out.
I'd like to give a special thanks to Joe Braue and Lee Keough for
inviting me in and keeping this spot open for me month after month, and
to Aaron Fischer, for helping me find the words. And thanks to all of
you as well. We'll be in touch, I'm sure. Until then, remember to keep
your eye on the Internet.
-0-
By: Nick Lippis, Contributing Editor
Copyright 1999 CMP Media Inc.
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