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Technology Stocks : Mattson Technology

MTSN 3.600

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May 12 5:00 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2052)	10/23/1999 12:05:00 PM
From: John Stewart	Read Replies (4) of 3661

Ian; My major conclusion from the CC is a model of profit and sales based on Brad and Brians YE2001 model and Brad's previous rev target run rate at the next peak of $400M are: Sales $M ATOI/Share $ Q499 33 0.05 Q100 41 0.10 Q200 50 0.16 Q300 58 0.23 Q400 67 0.31 YE00 216 0.79 Q101 75 0.47 Q201 83 0.65 Q301 92 0.86 Q401 100 1.10 YE01 350 3.08 I sure some are now wondering on how I came up with this stuff. - Brad & Brians model and the statement that they would be "halfway" there by YE2000. - Brains statement of a 10-15% tax rate going forward. I used 15%. - Straightline ramps of both revenue and margins. These are not my projections, but rather my extrapolations of the CC "financial model". I do reach the same conclusion as you, Ian, that profits will not be all that impressive for awhile. My own conclusion from this is that, if they do reach this, we should be at about $75/share at YE2001 based on a backcalculated P/S of 3.5 and P/E of 25. Best Regards, John Stewart

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