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Biotech / Medical : CLZR:a potential 10 bagger?

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To: John McCarthy who wrote (198)10/23/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: John McCarthy  Read Replies (1) of 315
 
Gross Sales - Quarter One - 2000

Q1-2000
Gross Sales

The $ by area are my best guess.
They are *not* reported numbers by CLZR.

The second column represents my estimate of what revenues
might be for Q1. They were extremely aggressive.

CLZR runs on a SEASONALIZE BASIS with Q1 being the WEAKEST
and Q4 being the STRONGEST. The *reason* for the seasonality
comes about because most doctors (the buyers) are on vacations
or trips during the summer months.

CLZR has a *monopoly* with respect to regular doctors.
Using PSS as its Sales Agent, CLZR is now calling on
almost 200,000 regular physicians and offering them
the GentleLASE. The *reason* this product is so hot with
regular physicians (see below) is because medical payments
come directly from the patient.

($)........2000A.....2000F.....1999A........+/<>.........+/<>
-------------------------------------------------------------
USA.......8,330.....9,915.....4,820.......<1,585>.......3,510
Foreign...7,710.....8,810.....5,918.......<1,100>.......1,792
-------------------------------------------------------------
Total....16,040....18,725....10,738.......<2,685>.......5,302
=============================================================

($ Ctry)..2000A.....2000F.....1999A........+/<>..........+/<>
-------------------------------------------------------------
USA.......8,330.....9,915.....4,820.......<1,585>.......3,510
Japan.....4,730.....5,630.....3,215.......<0,900>.......1,515
Europe....2,690.....2,400.....2,625........0,290........0,065
Brazil....0,210.....0,700.....0,000.......<0,490>.......0,210
Bangkok...0,000.....0,000.....0,000........0,000........0,000
Other.....0,080.....0,080.....0,078........0,000........0,002
-------------------------------------------------------------
Foreign...7,710.....8,810.....5,918.......<1,100>.......1,792
-------------------------------------------------------------
Total....16,040....18,725....10,738.......<2,685>.......5,302
=============================================================

($ USA Detail).............................+/<>..........+/<>
-------------------------------------------------------------
USA-Regular..................................390..........716
USA-PSSI..................................<1,800>.......2,500
USA-Electrologists........................<0,130>.........210
USA-SPA...................................<0,045>..........84
-------------------------------------------------------------
USA Variance by Detail....................<1,585>.......3,510
=============================================================

($ Foreign Detail).........................+/<>..........+/<>
-------------------------------------------------------------
Japan-Regular.............................<0,400>........500
Japan-Osaka...............................<0,500>......1,000
Japan-Service..............................0,000..........15
Europe-Regular...............................290.........<35>
Europe-Service.............................0,000.........100
Brazil-Regular............................<0,490>......0,210
Bangkok-Regular............................0,000.......0,000
Other-Regular..............................0,000.......0,002
------------------------------------------------------------
Foreign Variance by Detail................<1,100>......1,792
=============================================================

(% Mix)....2000A.....2000F.....1999A...
--------------------------------------
USA.........52.........53.......45....
Foreign.....48.........47.......55....
--------------------------------------
Total......100........100......100....
================================================

(% Change)2000A.....2000F.....1999A.........+/<>.........+/<>
-------------------------------------------------------------
USA.......8,330.....9,915.....4,820........<16%>..........73%
Foreign...7,710.....8,810.....5,918........<12%>..........30%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Total....16,040....18,725....10,738........<14%>..........49%
=============================================================

PSS - Inception To Date Revenues
--------------------------------
Q3A-1999 $1.2 million (17 equiv GentleLASE)
Q4A-1999 $2.5 million (36 equiv GentleLASE)
------------------------------------------------------------
Yr-1999 $3.7 million (53 equiv GentleLASE)
=============================================================
Q1A-2000 $2.5 million (36 equiv GentleLASE)
Q2F-2000 $3.0 million (42 equiv GentleLASE) - Projection
Q3F-2000 $3.5 million (50 equiv GentleLASE) - Projection
Q4F-2000 $4.0 million (57 equiv GentleLASE) - Projection
------------------------------------------------------------
Yr-2000 $13.0 million (185 equiv GentleLASE) - Act+Proj
=============================================================
Incepti $16.7 million (238 equiv GentleLASE) - Act+Proj
=============================================================

$13.0 million is worst case $.

I figure 10 GL's *each* state and the PSS doctors
capitulate and *call* PSS.

I figure 200 GL's *each* state and the price
to the consumers for a procedure FALLS dramatically.

regards,
John McCarthy
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