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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 227.11+3.1%12:09 PM EST
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To: Robert Mayo who wrote (32935)10/24/1999 9:04:00 AM
From: Henry Eichorszt  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill : The September book-to-bill ratio for US
semiconductor equipment came in at 1.08, down from August's 1.09 and
lower than most estimates (Morgan Stanley expected 1.10 to 1.15). This
means that for every $100 in product that shipped, companies received
$108 in new orders. Most of the semi stocks reported much higher
book-to-bill ratios in their earnings reports, many of which were 1.18
or higher. A couple reasons could explain the discrepancy. SEMI (the
firm that publishes the data) tends to be overly conservative with
forecasts, but also skewing the numbers may be Applied Material's (AMAT)
October quarter end, as most semi equipment companies receive the bulk
of their orders in the final month of the quarter. Both Morgan Stanley
and SG Cowen expressed considerable skepticism regarding this number,
and it is also important to note that longer term trends in book/bill
are excellent. The ratio has been higher than 1 for nine straight
months, and year/year order growth is an impressive 208%. Apparently
either the market agrees with this more bullish interpretation or
doesn't care as the Philly SOX Index is up 16.40 points, or 3.2% today
and the major test equipment stocks are all up on the heels of strong Q3
results. - MG
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