jdassoc: Some clarification (I hope) on the Samsung RDRAM issue. Stk_hawk posted the following on Yahoo thread:
POST #1
RDRAM wafer starts
by: stk_hawk
25966 of 26516
"NEC Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., have halted RDRAM wafer production until the fog clears.
When they resume, it will take two to three months to run wafers through the fab and assembly process
before finished product enters the market."
What these reporters fail to realize is, when produciton was stopped in early Oct, It also takes two to three
months for the line to empty. RDRAMs are still being produced today, thru December. When Intel releases
Camino, Production will start again but no shortage will be created because Inventory will get used. This is a
non issue.
Posted: 10/19/1999 11:22 pm EDT as a reply to: Msg 25953 by rmbshagt
POST #2 (FROM ME TO stk_hawk
stk_hawk... >>It also takes two...
by: rsurckla (59/M/ohio)
25967 of 26520
to three months for the line to empty. RDRAMs are still being produced today, thru December.<<
How do you know this?
POST #3 (stk_hawk's reply to me)
rsurckla
by: stk_hawk
25975 of 26520
Unless the DRAM manufacture feels they will never sell the product, there is no benefit to stopping, or
scrapping the wafers already in the line. It will not help accelerate wafers just getting started. To maximize
eventual revenue, they will simply let the material finish processing.
For the DRAM manufacture, the big problem is this material goes into inventory, which is opportunity lost. It
becomes a real big problem if this inventory is carried over a financial quarter. Not only could they have built
and sold SDRAM for revenue, they also accumulate inventory. Reduced revenue and inventory do not look
good on a balance sheet.
If you think the RMBS long investors are hot, you can just imagine the ear full the DRAM manufactures are
giving Intel. As a consequence, I believe Intel is under extreme pressure to get this problem solved before
the end of the year. It will be a much bigger disaster if it goes into 1Q00.
All of the data I have seen in the press seems to indicate the problem is only in the PC board traces for 3
slot systems. By now, they should have a lot of data on two slot systems with the 840. I predict, if Intel
cannot solve and verify the problem in three slot systems soon, they will release the 820 in two slot systems
to keep RDRAM inventory from building.
In answer to your original question, All of the above is IMO, and based on my understanding of how the
semiconductor industry works. |
