Thomas:
Ward, you are going to get bored holding onto to this one for a
whole year. I want to see if you can time it right, in a market sense
and not necessarily a single stock. But you are right, if you hold
now, I can't beat you. Takes a bit of the gusto away from the challenge.
Actually, the "gusto" is exactly what I've learned to fight over
the years. The whole point of adopting a trading strategy versus
a buy-and-hold is to give oneself more tools with which to make
money. Whether it's 2 trades per year or 200, my goal is to
maximize my return. During the first six months of 1999 I traded
quite heavily, but I slowed down during the summer and I've hardly
traded this fall. It's just my sense that there will be better
conditions under which to trade at a later date. For years I fought
with the tendancy to overtrade, but I believe that I've now won that
battle. It takes an enormous amount of effort to hold back from
doing something as stimulating as trading.
You've stated that you want to see me "time it right, in a market
sense and not necessarily a single stock". To me this represents
the crux of the problem. If this is truly your viewpoint, then
you should be adopting a position based on the TSE 300 and not
any one individual stock. If, however, you are going to maintain a
position in one particular stock, then the challenge should be for
me to beat the return on that individual stock, no? This was my
thinking when I waited for a good entry into JDU. I was prepared to
hold JDU as long as it was appreciating in order to maintain my lead.
You will have to decide which way you want to do this. I have
no desire to spend my time proving that trading is more profitable
than a buy-and-hold approach. I know it is. The only reason these
"experts" tell you otherwise is because they don't want you eating
their cake. This thread is a meeting place for those people who take
this viewpoint. Truthfully, I don't really feel like participating
further until I have a clear understanding of what my goal is. That
is why I sold JDU. Both of us have careers in science so I'm sure
you appreciate the importance of a clearly stated problem if one is
to seek a solution.
WN |
