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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (69810)10/24/1999 8:33:00 PM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
Andreas: The v-call broadcast was timed 11 a.m. on Friday. It may have been taped earlier - I don't know. That was about the time that CPQ share price started to weaken - in the first hour it had gained. I don't know if it is a case of "post hoc ergo propter hoc".

The v-com words were different from the CNBC interview earlier in the week.

Less than a year ago, Niles recommended CPQ somewhere in the $40's; he then recommended it as a BUY when it was $23 earlier this year. He gets paid to collect and anlayse information. After a stock has fallen 62% from its high (and he still had a STRONG BUY on it at its high), he should be able to do better than to repeat a cliche about a falling knife, or that zero is the only sure bottom, or that everyone thought the DEC problems were accommodated in the price when it was $50, $40 and $30. You can find much more informed and intellgient comments than that here.

All his comments last week were spiced with self-congratulatory remarks about how he was the only one to call the IBM slowdown. He has now put himself in a positon respecting COMPAQ where he can say his "disastorous" comment were a warning (even though he has not changed his BUY recommendation) or they referred to COMPAQ's lowered expectations since earlier this year. But given his interest in his reputation, I think he will claim that the COMPAQ numbers will reveal a potential slowdown in sales in its DEC products, whatever MC says.

If the figures are disastorous or even bad it would have been nice if Niles or other analysts could have told us what they would be. It is easy to be clever when someone inside a company is feeding you figures. It looks like MC control of the company has starved Niles and others of the easy route and they have not been able to generate any numerical analysis left to their own devices.
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