M2 -
DELL has been on a path to take the lead in US desktops for 18 months. I predicted in September of '98 that they would do this in fall of '99. The revised 2Q IDC numbers showed DELL with a narrow lead with stronger growth which implied they would lock in #1 in 3Q. Anyone who is surprised by this has just not been watching for the last few years.
As a DELL shareholder, I am more troubled by DELL's inability to bring up their numbers outside of their "English-speaking" markets. They are now bigger than CPQ in North America and the UK, and that has been where most of their growth has been. In Germany, France and the rest of Europe CPQ has more than twice DELL's share, and despite the "opportunity" presented by CPQ's disarray, DELL has failed to execute there. Likewise Asia, which has been a focus area for DELL, has not grown much.
The IDC PC numbers are pretty much what I expected. As far as CPQ goes, they are interesting but not definitive, since CPQ now has nearly 55% of revenue in other than the PC sector. DELL may drop back to #2 in 4Q as this is typically a very strong quarter for CPQ because of holiday retail sales. That will probably happen but I would expect DELL to get the crown back in 1Q00.
As victor said, it will be interesting to see how DELL does as the leader, not the follower... |
