Shareholders: get your heads out of the sand!
Semi stocks are all up because fabrication capacity shortages.
If you make chips, you have huge backorders and fatter margins.
That means anyone who makes or sells PC's will have to live with lower margins,
and lower sales from new product shortages for the forseeable future.
Also, I'm sure all the new chips from Intel and AMD just add to
consumer confusion, and will help delay many purchasing decisions,
forcing below cost discounts and write offs on older inventories.
Why do you suppose CompUSA brought back DVD's and other such nonsense.
Because this Xmas will be bleak for most PC sellers.
Even the Distributors are sufferring, and they usually
lead ReSeller losses by a few months. So when Ingram
Micro sneezes, CompUSA catches the Flu. The only hardware
sellers who's stocks will appreciate will be online internet
companies like outpost.com this is because nobody looks at
the earnings of these companies, only their market share
increase, hit counts, and net sales growth. So if outpost.com
attracts significant online sales growth over Xmas, even
if they lose a ton of money, their stock will go up, while
CompUSA will continue to lose sales, market share, and because
it's NOT and Internet company, it's stock will continue to die.
And if the only responce I get from this reasonable post
is 'Berger is back; time to buy' then that person is much
too immature to be trading stocks to begin with, and
should put his money back under his rubber sheeted mattress. |
