Thread,
Here is my take on today so far:
This is the best laptop launch Intel has done in recent history
- The laptop scene in the near term will be pretty much wrapped-up by Intel
- With CuMine performance and power consumption and cost, the K6 family doesn't stand a chance except at the very low end
- Until Athlon laptop parts debut Intel is in the driver seat - after that there is a good chance that Intel may have a power advantage
This is the lousiest desktop launch Intel has done to date for the following reasons:
- The largest OEM in the US, and an Intel darling, Dell is releasing only 700 MHz systems
- Gateway may be the only OEM with shipping 733 desktops - that too with VIA chipset
- A very weak distribution launch: No parts or motherboards on Pricewatch yet
- The press so far has been pretty tepid (usually the context is that Intel had caught up to AMD)
- Stock price is sagging on the day of the biggest product launch ever in the company's history
- Intel has not launched a 750 MHz part to compensate for the problems with the 133 FSB platform
- A reputed European trade rag is indicating that even the second place specmarks may be invalid
- Plenty of rumors on low volumes for 733s
- Most of the reviewers got CuMines with a 820 platform which is not shipping
- Intel's own benchmarks are based on 840 platform which is clearly not for the mainstream desktop. That Intel had to resort to this is not a sign of strength
This is the lousiest server launch Intel has done to date
- 256k cache => CuMine=Xeon - this ain't strength - this is desperation
- One of the major customer, IBM is making fun of this part, saying that there is no advantage to using this part
I think the story so far shows that Intel's first-rate state-of-the-art 0.18u process may help Intel barely keep pace with second-rate hybrid 0.25 process from AMD. So much for CuMine scaling - I understand that PB is Intel loyalist and will support the party line but the burden of proof seems to be overwhelmingly in Intel/PB's court.
In summary, a month after AMD launched the 700 speed grade, Intel has
- come back with a respectable second place entry for the desktop market
- killer entry for the laptop market
- a complete yawner for the server market
Isn't is funny how things have changed - AMD is shipping 750s but has not launched them yet. Intel has launched 733s and there are all kinds of rumors on how unavailable they are.
For doubters, I found a quote in Dan Niles research (10/7) report with a take on what AMD is shipping. On 10/7, with no fudging of words, Niles says - "AMD is selling 750MHz Athlons".
As some of the people on this thread like to say: Intel has pulled an AMD
Chuck
P.S.: All in all, I think this was a good day for AMD longs. No negative surprises.
P.P.S.: Rumors are that most OEMs are going to VIA for 133FSB, if true, this could be a real bad deal for RMBS - may be that's why the drop in the stock price today |
