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PK--My honest answer re the longer term forecast for the OSX, based on EW, is that (a)I am sufficiently uncertain that I would not place huge bets either way, and (b)the current 1 month correction may need a bit further time and distance to correct. Now, I well realize that this is probably not too helpful to you but it's the best i can do at present. What is troubling me is the longer term chart of the XOI (which OSX would key off of) and it tells me that a major peak was reached in Sept 99 and normally such completed wave which took 6 years to peak out will take longer than simply one month to start another sustained upwave. It is the short duration thus far of the correction that makes me think we have longer and furthur to go before a strong enough platform can be established to blast off in any sustained longer term way.... And when I look at all the super bullish news backdrop, I am inclined to now get even more cautious because usually meaningful longer term declines start out amidst similar super bullish news. It is only when the news gets much less bullish and people have become far more cautious that the end of a meaningful correction usually is near. So, I for one would not feel comfortable in making longer term bullish bets in any substantial way on energy at present--I well realize that this is very contrary to most other peoples' views on this thread-and they may turn out to be right. But, with hindsight, every time I hear the blaring in the streets at how bullish the background is and everyone knows it, the risk to investors has usually been at a high. Investing of course is all about greed vs fear. When the concensus is complacent and most people are bullish (because after all they read all the bullish news), I have found that to be a signal to 'watch out'....So, bottom line, i am not able to be more definitive longer term because there are some things that trouble me. So, other than saying that, I think I will pass. |
