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Technology Stocks : Energy Conversion Devices

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To: Michael Latas who wrote (4134)10/25/1999 10:02:00 PM
From: Michael Latas  Read Replies (1) of 8393
 
Another likely bit of news that could be forthcoming in our first quarterly newsletter might be the details of the preliminary agreement regarding our hydrogen venture with Royal/Dutch Shell. The press release this summer stated the details should be forthcoming in several months. We could then use that agreement in signing up the other oil companies.

Another point to ponder on this subject. ECD has invested a
considerable amount of time and money to bring our solid state hydrogen fuel technology to its present marketable state. Royal/Dutch Shell is supposed to handle the storage
and distribution, while we provide the technology. What, if
anything might they have to invest in ECD's technology,
which appears to be the only enabling technology addressing
the use of hydrogen as a safe, cost-effective environmentally friendly clean fuel. Something to think about. Look at how Ballard benefited from the infusion of cash from Ford and Daimler/Chrysler.

Some additional food for thought:

Stempel, in his hand out to the NY Society of Security Analysts and presentation in New York in July, stated that:

* "1998 worldwide PV module shipments - 160 MW
* Total revenue - more than $1.2 billion from modules and systems
* Paul Maycock projections:

Year 2000 Year 2005 Year 2010

210 MW 640 MW 1920 MW

* Market growth inversely proportional to cost
* Proprietary high-volume production lowers costs and opens markets dramatically
* Earlier movement to high-volume production will accelerate market growth
* UPVG - $3/watt; 600 MW in US alone

If you crunch the numbers this turns out to be $7.5 million per MW for modules and systems. A 25 MW plant would result
in $187.5 million in projected revenue from modules and systems. Perhaps someone out there has the rule-of-thumb formula to break out the module income from the systems,
so we might get a handle on projected income when the plant is fully operational.

We should also secure the contract to build the 25 MW plant,
which should be an additional source of income. Then, the next question still unanswered is how much longer will it be before we can realistically build our projected cost-competitive to conventional fuels 100 MW plant?

Satellite contracts will play an important part in the answer to the above question.

Regards.
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