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Technology Stocks : Sycamore Networks Inc-(SCMR)
SCMR 0.2260.0%Nov 30 4:00 PM EST
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To: Bill who wrote (742)10/26/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: The Phoenix  Read Replies (2) of 2249
 
Oh...gee... let's see...we're going to add another $50B in expeditures in 2004. Furthermore Bill, as I said, SCMR only plays in a small part of the overall market. Again, as I said before SCMR's estimated total available market is about $20B over the next 5 years. They will not get 100% market share. I would like to understand where you got your $100B number from...given my sources you are in left field...you said you used the same sources. So, what sources would they be. I suspect you're not educating yourself on this one.

If SCMR does $10B in total revenue in the next 5 years I'll eat my words...but I think I've got a good chance of being right..there's just not enough build-out dollars to spend to reward SCMR with anything close to $10B over five years... So, $14B or $18B.. either number is way overpriced. Reality says this is one that should be valued at less than $1B..but given this investor crazy market it seems unreasonable to expect sanity. So...let's say $4B... but $14B???? for a company that won't be able to generate that kind of revenue in years...let alone earnings....and given that CSCO, LU, NT, and anyone else that matters is building their own SCMR like technology...there's no buy-out play here.... so where do you go from here? How do you justify making money here... how do you justify going to a $25B valuation??? How would an analyst justify a "buy rating" given the total available market. This might be the first technology IPO that has analysts coming out with HOLD ratings!

OG
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